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Scenarios
for the
Future
of
Technology
and
International Development
This report was produced by
The Rockefeller Foundation
and Global Business Network.
May 2010
Contents
Letter from Judith Rodin
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4
Letter from Peter Schwartz
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8
WHY SCENARIOS?
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
WHY TECHNOLOGY?
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
THE FOCAL QUESTION
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11
ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11
The Scenario Framework
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13
CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15
THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17
Lock Step
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
Clever Together
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26
Hack Attack
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34
Smart Scramble
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
42
Concluding Thoughts
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
Appendix
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51
Letter from Judith Rodin
President of the Rockefeller Foundation
The Rockefeller Foundation supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens
resilience to social, economic, health, and environmental challenges — afirming
its pioneering philanthropic mission, since 1913, to “promote the well-being” of
humanity. We take a synergistic, strategic approach that places a high value on
innovative processes and encourages new ways of seeking ideas, to break down silos
and encourage interdisciplinary thinking.
One important — and novel — component of our strategy toolkit is scenario planning,
a process of creating narratives about the future based on factors likely to affect a
particular set of challenges and opportunities. We believe that scenario planning has
great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions, simulate and
rehearse important decisions that could have profound implications, and highlight
previously undiscovered areas of connection and intersection. Most important,
by providing a methodological structure that helps us focus on what we don’t
know — instead of what we already know — scenario planning allows us to achieve
impact more effectively.
The results of our irst scenario planning exercise demonstrate a provocative and
engaging exploration of the role of technology and the future of globalization,
as you will see in the following pages. This report is crucial reading for anyone
interested in creatively considering the multiple, divergent ways in which our world
could evolve. The sparks of insight inspiring these narratives — along with their
implications for philanthropy as a whole — were generated through the invaluable
collaboration of grantee representatives, external experts, and Rockefeller
Foundation staff. I offer a special thanks to Peter Schwartz, Andrew Blau, and the
entire team at Global Business Network, who have helped guide us through this
stimulating and energizing process.
4
Leading this effort at the Rockefeller Foundation is our Research Unit, which
analyzes emerging risks and opportunities and thinks imaginatively about how to
respond to the complex, rapidly changing world around us. This outward-looking
intelligence function adopts a cross-cutting mindset that synthesizes and integrates
knowledge that accelerates our ability to act more quickly and effectively. It has
also helped to shape and build the notion of “pro-poor foresight” that is committed
to applying forward-looking tools and techniques to improve the lives of poor and
vulnerable populations around the world.
I hope this publication makes clear exactly why my colleagues and I are so excited
about the promise of using scenario planning to develop robust strategies and offer a
refreshing viewpoint on the possibilities that lie ahead. We welcome your feedback.
Judith Rodin
President
The Rockefeller Foundation
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